Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
